Friday, August 26, 2011
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
Thursday, August 11, 2011

The latest market downturn has set off a new round of questions about "what is wrong" with the U.S. economy. Fundamentally, I believe the root problems are the same as those behind the recent riots in London- lack of job growth and opportunity. That is to say, not monetary policy, fiscal policy, tax policy, or any of the traditional levers that Washington pulls. The problem is far more entrenched than that, that we do not have a clear answer to the question "what is America's next big market?" Where is the automotive industry of the 60s, or the chemical industry of the 1970s, or the electronics industry of the 80s, or the web of the 90s?
In short America would do a lot better to have a few dozen more Steve Jobs, and a few less Steve Forbes. A few more people who imagine, design, build, and manage high-growth companies, a few less people who talk 'til they're blue in the face about their pet issue, tax rates, or some other form of their immediate personal interest. Editorializing does not create jobs. Innovation, risk, and yes, even failure, creates jobs. Failure does because it teaches about what doesn't work, and it leverages the numbers game. Enough people risk failure and the odds of getting a successful outcome increase.
So where are the Steve Jobs? The people who do precious little talking, and a lot of doing. Most people would agree they are most definitely not in Washington. I don't think I have to belabor this point after the recent orgy of dysfunction revolving around reaching a consensus to allow for the payment of the things we already purchased. And they don't appear to be on Wall Street either. A recent quote points to the all too common tendency of Wall Street, the place that embodies the marketplace, to so quickly become dependent on the next fall from the sky government solution: “We haven’t seen policy makers come out with a plan that is viewed as comprehensive, coordinated and credible,” said Philip Finch, a global bank strategist for UBS. “We need confidence restored and there’s a lot of infighting.”
Wait. So what's holding up Wall Street is they don't have confidence in what the government's plan is for the economy? That sounds like market subservience to government action. That doesn't sound like the market allocating resources while seeking the best returns, it sounds like the market looking for the government to do that. I disagree with that perspective- yet it can be seen virtually everywhere on Wall Street today.
Wall Street needs to stop looking for some silver bullet, and actually do its jobs of investing in growth, e.g. taking more promising companies public. Of course I realize the absurdity of saying this. Wall Street is not one entity; it doesn't have a viewpoint. It's just the forum for the views, and increasingly the fears, of millions of everyday Americans. And after some recent travels, I have seen how afraid a lot of Americans are. They are in fact largely too afraid it seems to think much beyond this downturn. If enough smart people do this, it actually impedes future growth because less ideas, less work, less innovation will occur. Our anxiety, more so than even rational uncertainty, seems to be impeding the foundations of future growth. So it doesn't appear to be with the everyday American either.
Investors who think about the future, the long term, who envision new things- this is the only way towards growth. And our now 3 year long panic attack- the reasons vary from week to week, this week it was apparently a French bank's balance sheet, last week it was the debt debate, the week before that it was oil- but this never-ending carousel of fear is certainly not how you get job growth. Steve Jobs doesn't sit in his office all day and worry about what happened today, or in the last hour. He thinks about how to make people's lives, through the experience they have with technology- better. And he thinks about new ideas and how to patent them- how to own innovation.
So where are the risk-takers? Where are the innovators? Where are the people who don't turn and run with a little turmoil? Wherever they are we need to find their DNA and help reproduce it, help spread it. Surely that is what everyone, including our friends on Wall Street, really wants. They exist in pockets out there in the market. I just hope they will stay the course. It's their return on investment that everyone needs.
(PS- as specific policy, I would tout immigration reform so this country can import the world's talent, a new broader WTO agreement, and a tax shift away from income and corporate taxes to tax pollution to nurture what I think is the next big sustainable market. But we can't rely on Washington for common sense.)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)